by Terri Bey
If you had bet that the COVID-19 pandemic was going to turn everything upside-down, you would be the winner. The novel coronavirus has shut down the world and has wrecked havoc on people’s lives. All over the world, millions have contracted the virus and thousands have died. Countless businesses have suffered, from small mom and pop stores to nail salons to gyms to schools and university. The entertainment industry has been devastated by the pandemic.
Sports has also been adversely affected by this pandemic. The NBA, MLB and NHL had to put their seasons on months-long pauses. The NBA is playing in a “bubble” in Orlando, Florida to very good results, as no one, at this writing has gotten sick. MLB are playing in different stadiums, with mixed results, as some games had to be postponed because of outbreaks of COVID have happened to different teams. All three of these sports have no fans in the stands, but they put artificial crowd noise and they also insert placards of people in the stands. The NFL had a virtual NFL Draft, as they had to cancel their in-person 2020 NFL Draft. There were no OTAs and the pre-season games were eliminated. The NFL Season is scheduled to start on Sept 10th with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs playing to about 16,000 fans against the Houston Texans. Many other NFL teams will start the season with no fans in the stands, but hope to do so later.
Horse racing was not immune, either, as jockeys contracted the illness and/or the sport, like the other major sports, have continued without or with very little fans in attendance, depending on the state. Monmouth Park in New Jersey, for example, allowed up to, about 1000 fans, whereas Saratoga Racetrack and Belmont Park in New York, were not allowed to have fans, even though both tracks, particularly Belmont are enormous tracks. The Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks, which are USUALLY run on the first Saturday and first Friday in May respectively, were both moved to this upcoming weekend in hopes of being able to have fans in the stands. Unfortunately, due to the fact that Louisville, where Churchill Downs, the racetrack at where the two races are run, became a COVID “red zone,” the plan to have 23,000 fans was canceled. It is very unfortunate that this year’s Derby and Oaks will be run without specatorts for the first time in the race’s history.
In this blog, I will give a very brief analysis of both the 2020 Kentucky Oaks and the 2020 Kentucky Derby and my picks for each race. I also want my readers to know that I did something a LITTLE different this year. When I give the prediction of the winner of each race, it will be in two parts. I will state who I WANT to win and who I PREDICT will win. This is one of my favorite blogs to do each year and I hope all the participants have a safe Oaks and Derby. Feedback is welcomed and encouraged.
Now, that I got all of that out of the way, let’s get started with the nine horse field for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, as you can see in the figure below. The race is run at 1 1/8th miles. It is run on the Churchill Downs dirt track. The races is known as the “Lilies for the Fillies,” as the winning 3YO filly gets a blanket of lilies on her withers. The purse is $1,250,000. Post time is 5:45pm, EST on NBCSN.
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Wgt | Trainer | M/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1Swiss Skydiver (KY) | Tyler Gaffalione | 121 | Kenneth G. McPeek | 8/5 |
| 2 | 2Tempers Rising (KY) | Julien R. Leparoux | 121 | Dallas Stewart | 50/1 |
| 3 | 3Donna Veloce (KY) | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | 121 | Simon Callaghan | 15/1 |
| 4 | 4Speech (FL) | Javier Castellano | 121 | Michael W. McCarthy | 5/1 |
| 5 | 5Gamine (KY) | John R. Velazquez | 121 | Bob Baffert | 1/1 |
| 6 | 6Bayerness (KY) | Rafael Bejarano | 121 | Cherie DeVaux | 50/1 |
| 7 | 7Shedaresthedevil (KY) | Florent Geroux | 121 | Brad H. Cox | 20/1 |
| 8 | 8Hopeful Growth (KY) | Manuel Franco | 121 | Anthony R. Margotta, Jr. | 30/1 |
| 9 | 9Dream Marie (KY) | Joseph Talamo | 121 | Matthew J. Williams | 50/1 |
ANALYSIS:
I have been a long-time backer of the Bob Baffert trained GAMINE. My only question is whether she can carry her speed for 1 1/8th miles. If SPEECH or SWISS SKYDIVER can challenge Gamine, I am not so sure. BAYERNESS is a nice longshot. She has defeated Swiss Skydiver, another of my favorites, but that was way back in November. DONNA VOLACE could be a sleeper here, as she has finished first or second in her last four starts. She hasn’t run since March, though Simon Callaghan has stated that she’s been off and was given 60 days to recover. I tend to be wary of horses who haven’t been in a race for such a long time. Unless she’s Da Hoss. TEMPERS RISING is trained by Dallas Stewart. Dallas Stewart has been known to win or hit the board on Derby AND Oaks Day.
PREDICTION: The top horses in this race are Swiss Skydiver, Speech and Gamine. Gamine is such a short price and I don’t like picking a horse that is so heavily favored. If I am going to go elsewhere, I would look at Speech, Donna Volace or even one of the two horses sired by Bayern, Bayerness or Tempers Rising, especially if you are playing exotics.
Winner:
Who I WANT to win: Gamine or Swiss Skydiver.
Who I PREDICT WILL win: Swiss Skydiver
Longshot Recommendation: Tempers Rising
Now here is the field for the 2020 Kentucky Derby. The race is run at 1 1/4 miles on dirt. Post time is at 6:50pm, EST on NBC. The purse for the Derby for 3YOs is $3,000,000. The race takes place at the historic Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, KY.
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Wgt | Trainer | M/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1Finnick the Fierce (KY) | Martin Garcia | 126 | Rey Hernandez | 50/1 |
| 2 | 2Max Player (KY) | Ricardo Santana, Jr. | 126 | Steven M. Asmussen | 30/1 |
| 3 | 3Enforceable (KY) | Adam Beschizza | 126 | Mark E. Casse | 30/1 |
| 4 | 4Storm the Court (KY) | Julien R. Leparoux | 126 | Peter Eurton | 50/1 |
| 5 | 5Major Fed (KY) | James Graham | 126 | Gregory D. Foley | 50/1 |
| 6 | 6King Guillermo (KY) | Samy Camacho | 126 | Juan Carlos Avila | 20/1 |
| 7 | 7Money Moves (KY) | Javier Castellano | 126 | Todd A. Pletcher | 30/1 |
| 8 | 8South Bend (KY) | Tyler Gaffalione | 126 | William I. Mott | 50/1 |
| 9 | 9Mr. Big News (KY) | Gabriel Saez | 126 | W. Bret Calhoun | 50/1 |
| 10 | 10Thousand Words (FL) | Florent Geroux | 126 | Bob Baffert | 15/1 |
| 11 | 11Necker Island (KY) | Miguel Mena | 126 | Chris A. Hartman | 50/1 |
| 12 | 12Sole Volante (KY) | Luca Panici | 126 | Patrick L. Biancone | 30/1 |
| 13 | 13Attachment Rate (VA) | Joseph Talamo | 126 | Dale L. Romans | 50/1 |
| 14 | 14Winning Impression (KY) | Joseph Rocco, Jr. | 126 | Dallas Stewart | 50/1 |
| 15 | 15Ny Traffic (NY) | Paco Lopez | 126 | Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. | 20/1 |
| 16 | 16Honor A. P. (KY) | Mike E. Smith | 126 | John A. Shirreffs | 5/1 |
| 17 | 17Tiz the Law (NY) | Manuel Franco | 126 | Barclay Tagg | 3/5 |
| 18 | 18Authentic (KY) | John R. Velazquez | 126 | Bob Baffert | 8/1 |
ANALYSIS:
When Churchill Downs changed the date of the Derby, lots of races got all mixed up. The prohibitive favorite, TIZ THE LAW, owned and trained by the same connections that gave racing fans FUNNY CIDE won the shortened Belmont Stakes, and Travers. This horse seems to be unstoppable and is the deserved favorite, despite being given #17. Even though the #3 hole is technically the #1 hole, no horse with #17 has won the Derby. Can Tiz the Law overcome all that? We will see. Trainer John Shirreffs of ZENYATTA fame, has brought another favorite in HONOR A.P., a handsome son of HONOR CODE. Honor A.P. finished a closing second in the Shared Belief, last time out.
Of course, we can’t not leave out any Derby discussion without Bob Baffert. Baffert has two horses in the race, AUTHENTIC and THOUSAND WORDS. Let’s start with Authentic. He drew the far outside post 18. Yes, American Pharoah won from that post. Authentic is a nice horse, but I don’t think he is American Pharoah. In the Haskell, NY TRAFFIC nearly beat him at the wire. I definitely think, tactics-wise, Authentic is going to have to go to the front. There is no doubt in my mind. The other horse, Thousand Words, who won the Shared Belief on the lead may have to stalk or rate. He is a son of one of my favorite stallions, the late Pioneerof the Nile, who sadly passed away in March of 2019. He sired American Pharoah. Can he sire another Derby winner? We will see. Thousand Words had a bit of a slow spot, as Baffert stated, “He soured on me.” However, the horse appears to be getting back into the swing of things just at the right time.
The rest of the field are a lot of horses that are long-shots and those who I would call “no-hopers.” Some may surprise and hit the board, if you like longshots. KING GUILLERMO, owned by former MLB player Victor Martinez, is what I call the “wiseguy horse, a horse on the improve and has a huge following. He has had four months off, and people seem to like him and give him a big chance. Unless he is Da Hoss, who won the 1998 Breeders’ Cup Mile after a year off, I just don’t see it. Some horses who my readers may like to consider in their exotic bets: NY Traffic, MAX PLAYER, and MAJOR FED.
PREDICTION:
Tiz the Law has don’t nothing wrong this year. He has done everything asked of him. Yes, his sole loss came at Churchill Downs as a 2YO. However, he is a way different horse. He has beaten a good portion of this field. He will be a tough customer. However, from a betting perspective, I certainly am going to try. After all, this IS the Kentucky Derby and anything can happen. I thought my beloved Point Given was a cinch as well.
The Kentucky Derby is known for that mad dash for the first turn. The race will be using the new one piece starting gate so it will be interesting to see if it plays a factor as well. Authentic, as I said earlier, will definitely go to the lead. Tiz the Law and I believe Honor A.P. will be forwardly place. They should get decent position as long as they don’t get crushed by that mad dash to the first turn. For Thousand Words to have a chance he has to be hustled out there as well. Depending on how fast the pace is upfront, I could definitely see a scenario where a deep closer like NY Traffic will pick up the pieces and hit the board.
WINNER:
Who I WANT to win: Thousand Words and Tiz the Law
Who I PREDICT WILL win: Tiz the Law
Longshot Special: Max Player
Well, those are my picks for the 2020 Kentucky Derby and Oaks. Good luck to all participants and horses. For those betting, bet with your head and not over it.
Feedback:
Email: Alydace@yahoo.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/missedgehead
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/giopontifan
edgerocks 