143rd Preakness Stakes Preview-Will the Kentucky Derby winner “Justify” his Derby win in the Triple Crown’s Second Jewel?

by

Terri Bey

This Saturday, May 19, 2018, Justify, the Kentucky Derby winner will try to win the second jewel of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes. The Preakness is run in Baltimore, MD at Pimlico Racetrack, or “Old Hilltop,” named for a small rise in the infield where fans like to watch the contestants. There is talk that since the track is over 100 years old, that the traditional Triple Crown race may be run at the newer Laurel Park. Personally, I hope that “Old Hilltop” can be renovated, and the Preakness can still be run at Pimlico. I like traditions to be kept, if at all possible.

However, what I will be discussing in this blog is the 143rd Preakness Stakes. I will be discussing the horses in the race, and giving my opinion of whether the Kentucky Derby winner Justify can add the second leg of the Triple Crown to his collection. If I think there is a horse that can play spoiler, I will point him out, too. I hope you will enjoy this blog.

As there have been awesome runnings of the Kentucky Derby, there also have been great runnings of the Preakness Stakes. There is the 1978 clash between Affirmed and Alydar (https://youtu.be/A5Zytq6GWWM ). Secretariat’s 1973 burst of speed in that year’s Preakness is my personal favorite of his Triple Crown races (https://youtu.be/yfWwIyQYkgc ). The 1989 Preakness Stakes featured an amazing stretch duel between Sunday Silence and Easy Goer (https://youtu.be/VJjJphmr10s ). We can’t forget the brilliant filly Rachel Alexandra winning the Preakness in 2009, as well (https://youtu.be/TD9AwA-N4EU ). Can this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes live up to these classics? We will have to tune in, and see.

The weather has been horrendous in Baltimore, MD, with pounding rain, that will continue to post time for the Preakness. The track condition is expected to be sloppy, pretty much like the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. I really hate off-tracks. An “off-track” is a dirt track that is labeled anything other than “fast.” I don’t think that all the horses get a fair shot, like they would on a fast and dry track. However, it is what it is, and all the horses have to run on the same track. The first two finishers of the Kentucky Derby, Justify and Good Magic are more probable than not going to be fine running in that slop on Saturday.

Let’s examine the entire Preakness Field.

THE 143rd PREAKNESS STAKES

• RACETRACK: Pimlico Racetrack
• POST TIME: 6:20PM, EST
• NETWORK: NBC

Post draw, odds

POST	HORSE	ODDS
1	Quip	12-1
2	Lone Sailor	15-1
3	Sporting Chance	30-1
4	Diamond King	30-1
5	Good Magic	3-1
6	Tenfold	20-1
7	Justify	1-2
8	Bravazo	20-1

ANALYSIS:

Let’s discuss the 144th Kentucky Derby winner JUSTIFY’S chances of winning the Preakness first. Much has been made of Justify’s heel bruise in his left hind leg. I watched videos of his gallops since the injury was treated, and watched videos of him at Pimlico, and I think the horse looks ready to roll. The “trial by social media” was way out of control, but that is another blog for another time. If he runs his race, and jockey Mike Smith keeps him out of trouble, as there is speed to his inside in QUIP, who is being ridden by Florent Geroux, and trained by Rodolphe Brissett, and SPORTING CHANCE, who is being ridden by Luis Contreras, and trained by D. Wayne Lukas, I think Justify could give his trainer, Bob Baffert another shot at a Triple Crown.

As for the rest of the field, the only horse I could see upsetting the apple cart would be the Kentucky Derby second place finisher GOOD MAGIC, trained by Chad Brown, and is being ridden by Jose Ortiz. I could see Good Magic being a bit more forwardly placed, so Justify doesn’t get away to an easy lead. Remember, Chad Brown upset the apple cart in last year’s Preakness with Cloud Computing. The aforementioned Sporting Chance is so unpredictable. He totally flamed out in the Pat Day Mile two weeks ago at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby undercard. Quip who was quite impressive in the Tampa Bay Derby could give Justify problems, if a speed duel developed. Quip also finished second to Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby as well. TENFOLD, who will be ridden by Ricardo Santana, Jr., and is trained by Steve Asmussen, has only run three times, and in his last race, finished fifth in the Arkansas Derby. I think I will pass on Tenfold, even though with a sloppy track, he might be playable in your exotics, should the favorites fail. BRAVAZO will be ridden by Luis Saez, and like Sporting Chance, is trained by the legend, D. Wayne Lukas. I know that Mr. Lukas loves to compete, but this horse is 20-1 for a reason. Bravazo is another pass for me. Federico Tesio Stakes winner DIAMOND KING is a horse that also likes to go to the front. He definitely takes a huge step up, but I think he is in over his head in here. LONE SAILOR has won on an off-track, but will need a very fast pace to have any chance of hitting the board. Irad Ortiz, Jr will be in the irons, and Tom Amoss is the horse’s trainer.

PREDICTION:

This race will feature a lot of strategizing by the jockeys. Justify must break well, as he is a huge horse, and he has had a recent minor injury. Justify is in only his fifth race of his career, and doesn’t have the experience of a more seasoned horse to deal with any kind of adverse conditions. Jockey Mike Smith must keep Justify out of of any kind of speed duel. Of course, it may be that Justify might be too quick to get to the lead, and he may be able to play “catch me if you can.”

Good Magic is the wildcard in this race. If Good Magic can be more forwardly placed, and is able to keep up with the speedsters, I suspect that the Chad Brown trainee could upset the apple cart.

All that being said, my pick for the 143rd Preakness Stakes is: JUSTIFY.

THE UPSET PICK: GOOD MAGIC.

LONGSHOT SPECIAL: TENFOLD

Feedback is welcome, and thank you for reading.

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/missedgehead

Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/GioPontiFan

Email: Alydace@yahoo.com

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My Prediction for Kentucky Derby 144

 

by

Terri Bey

Get your vocal cords ready to sing “My Old Kentucky Home,” as Kentucky Derby 144 will be taking place this Saturday, May 5, 2018. This 1 1/4 mile race is known as the “greatest two minutes in sports,” or “the Run for the Roses,” as the winning horse gets a garland of roses draped over his or her withers. The Kentucky Derby, run since 1875, is for 3YO Thoroughbreds of either gender. This race is the first leg in racing’s Triple Crown. Two weeks from Saturday will be the 1 3/16 mile Preakness at Pimilco Racetrack, and three weeks after that race is the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park.

Many great horses have won the Kentucky Derby, such as 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat, Northern Dancer in 1964, and Alysheba in 1987.  With 3YOs going 1 1/4 miles for the first time, the Derby winner has to have some racing luck, and the favorite has not always won, giving rise to longshot winners, such as 2009’s winner Mine That Bird. Three fillies have won this American classic, and they are Regret in 1915, Genuine Risk in 1980, and Winning Colors in 1988.

In this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby, there is an amazing field of Kentucky Derby entrants. I would say that this is the best field I have seen since the 2015 Kentucky Derby field, which featured American Pharoah. There are so many storylines in this race. Can any of the 4-horse “Todd Squad” give trainer Todd Pletcher a second consecutive Derby win? The Pletcher-trained Always Dreaming won last year’s Derby.  Can the “Apollo Curse” be broken by either the Bob Baffert trained Justify or Pletcher trained Magnum Moon?  No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without running as a 2YO. Can the 2YO Eclipse Champion Good Magic win the roses?  So many storylines to sift through.

In this blog, I am going to lay out the field, and then give my opinion by putting horses into categories based upon the chances I give them. I will give my longshot specials, and then I will give my readers the horse I think will win Kentucky Derby 144. I hope you enjoy this blog. Thank you for reading.

ANALYSIS of the KENTUCKY DERBY

• Event: Kentucky Derby
• Track: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
• Post Time: 6:50PM, EST.
• Network: NBC

 

Here is your field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby with jockeys, trainers and morning line odds.

Image Credit:  XBTV.com  Used with Permission.

 

TOSSES:

These are the horses that I just don’t think have a shot of hitting the board, never mind winning the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Firenze Fire: He’s a deep closer.  He’s in the dreaded one hole.  The whole field will have to melt down for him to have a shot.  Pass

Free Drop Billy: Another horse I am not all that impressed with. He did finish second to Audible in the Holy Bull, but Audible just blasted away from him.  No way.

Promises Fulfilled:  This speedster will just go to the front, and we will see how far his speed will carry him. Nope.

Bravazo: Yes, I know D. Wayne Lukas trains him, and he is owned by Calumet Farm, but I haven’t been impressed with his performances as of yet. Toss.

Instilled Regard: This is another horse that I would not recommend you put money on. Toss.

Combatant: He was in the money in the Rebel Stakes, and then had a wide trip, and wound up out of the money in a blanket finish several lengths behind Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon.  He’s 50-1 for a reason.  Toss.

Noble Indy: He won the Louisiana Derby, but  he’s in post position 19, I just don’t think he  will repeat his Louisiana Derby performance. He’s the only one I am tossing of the “Todd Squad.” He’s fast, but I don’t think he will get much done. Toss.

Flameaway:  He finished second to Good Magic in the Bluegrass Stakes. Flameaway is a nice son of the late Scat Daddy, but I don’t think he’ll do anything here. Toss.

 

LONGSHOTS WORTH BETTING ON:

These are the horses that I think are worthy longshots to consider putting on your ticket, especially in your exotic bets.  I am expecting a fast pace, so if the pace is right, I think my readers should consider these horses to possibly hit the board.  Could an upset win come from one of these horses? Maybe.

Hofburg: This horse, trained by Bill Mott, of  Cigar Fame, is a bit of a “wise guy” horse, but he has been training very well at Churchill Downs. Hofburg was a good second to Audible in the Florida Derby. I like this horse’s breeding, by Tapit, out of a Touch Gold mare. Touch Gold won the 1997 Belmont, so Hofburg definitely has distance breeding. Bill Mott doesn’t bring a horse to the Derby often, so I would pay attention here.

Lone Sailor: Owned by the late Tom Benson, Owner of the New Orleans Saints, Lone Sailor has also been working well of late.  Lone Sailor finished a great second to Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby. If the pace is hot enough, which I suspect it will be, Lone Sailor should be expecting to make a late run.  He’s looked great at the track.  I like him a little better than Hofburg.

My Boy Jack: My Boy Jack made an amazing run in the Lexington Stakes to get enough points to make the Kentucky Derby with that win.  Can he do it again in the Kentucky Derby? I like him, but I would like his chances better, if the track were going to be muddy, which may be the case, as per the National Weather Service, there is a 40% chance of showers for Louisville on Saturday.  If the track does happen to be an off track, definitely consider My Boy Jack.

Enticed: This son of Medaglia D’Oro won the Gotham Stakes and was second in the Wood Memorial to Vino Russo.  He should be stalking the pace. My concern with him is his action. What I am referring to is his stride looks a bit awkward to me at times. However, he is training well, and I think he is worth considering.

Solomini: This horse was nearly a toss for me, because he has been so inconsistent. It takes a lot for me to doubt a horse trained by Bob Baffert. He raced fairly well in California against the now sidelined McKinzie. However, in both the Rebel and in the Arkansas Derby, Solomini was a total mess. I don’t know if his rider gave him a bad ride, or what the deal was. If Solomini gets it together, he could surprise.

HEADING TO THE WINNER’S CIRCLE:

These are the horses, who are more probable than not going to be the ones most likely to win Kentucky Derby 144.

Audible: He was an impressive winner of the Holy Bull and Florida Derby. I love this horse. Of all of the horses that Todd Pletcher has in this race, Audible is my favorite. The Florida Derby has produced 24 Derby winners, including last year’s Derby winner Always Derby.  Sadly, it didn’t work for my beloved Alydar 40 years ago, but I digress.  He’s been looking good in training.  I really love this horse.

Vino Russo: This horse is very well bred. He is by Curlin, out of a Street Cry mare. Vino Russo survived an inquiry to win the Wood Memorial.  I am expecting to see him come off the pace. I am not as crazy about him as some other handicappers are, but he is a horse to definitely put on your ticket.

Magnum Moon:  Magnum Moon is undefeated as a 3YO this year. He has won the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby with authority. Magnum Moon does run a bit greenish, and is in post position 16.  I don’t think he is as fast as some of these contenders, but he comes in undefeated. He does deserve to be considered a strong possible winner.  He is lightly raced, as he did not race as a 2YO, and is trying to break the “Apollo Curse.”

Good Magic: He comes into the race with a decent win in the Bluegrass Stakes.  The Bluegrass Stakes has produced 23 winners of the Kentucky Derby, but no Bluegrass Stakes winner has gone onto win the Roses since Strike the Gold in 1991, so Good Magic is up against a bit of history, here.  Good Magic has been looking and training very well at Churchill Downs.  Trainer Chad Brown appears to be very pleased with him. I definitely would put Good Magic on a ticket.

Justify: Besides Solomini, Bob Baffert trains the favorite, Justify, who like Magnum Moon, is also trying to break the “Apollo Curse.”  Justify has raced only 3 times, but has been brilliant in all three starts, most notably, the Santa Anita Stakes, where he defeated Bolt D’Oro.  He has been looking great. at Churchill Downs, since arrival. Justify looks great on the Churchill Downs track. He has been training great at Santa Anita.  I  have been a fan of Justify since day one.  Justify is one of, if not THE horse to beat in this field.

Bolt D’Oro: This son of Medaglia D’Oro was the prohibitive favorite to be crowned champion 2YO in 2017, until he finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to eventual champion Good Magic.  Bolt D’Oro was awarded first place via DQ over McKinzie in the San Felipe in a rather controversial decision by the stewards in 2018.  Bolt D’Oro finished second behind Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.  This is another horse, who I think is sitting on a big race, and another horse I absolutely love.

Mendelssohn: This son of Scat Daddy became my Kentucky Derby horse when he won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf  with authority. Yes, you read that right. He won a TURF race. Mendelssohn is named for one of the greatest composers ever, Felix Mendelssohn.  Mendelssohn, the horse, is sired by Scat Daddy, and is out of Leslie’s Lady, dam of multiple time champion mare Beholder and Into Mischief, sire of Audible.  Mendelssohn stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a killer performance in the UAE Derby by 18 lengths.  The Scat Daddy colt is trained by Aidan O’Brien, and is aiming to be the first European to win the American classic.

MY KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS:

LONGSHOT PICK: Lone Sailor.

KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER: I have been going back and forth between Bolt D’Oro, Justify, and Mendelssohn.  I realize that Mendelssohn has to travel, and there is the “bounce” factor, like there was with Bellamy Road.  However, Mendelssohn does not appear to have any issues with traveling, and he is way more talented than Bellamy Road.  Justify’s lack of experience does concern me.  Does Bolt D’Oro’s trainer Mick Ruis have the horse ready? The only horse from the “Todd Squad” I really am into is Audible.

Well, after much consideration, my pick for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby is MENDELSSOHN.

Good luck to all, and if you bet, bet with your head, not over it.

Feedback is welcome.

Email: Alydace@yahoo.com

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/missedgehead

Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/giopontifan

 

 

FLESH & BLOOD album delayed

Thanks for letting me know. I look forward to the album’s release. Sorry about the delay.

WHITESNAKE Fan Page

Earlier today, Whitesnake’s label Frontiers Music Srl announced that due to technical problems, both Whitesnake & Frontiers had agreed to delay the release of the new Whitesnake album FLESH & BLOOD to early 2019.

It is with great disappointment that, following technical issues whilst mixing the new FLESH AND BLOOD album, Whitesnake and Frontiers have mutually agreed to delay the album release until early 2019.

The release of the new studio record is to coincide with the Whitesnake Flesh & Blood World Tour.

Whitesnake would like to express their sincere regrets to our Fans All Over The World for any and all disappointment and promise the album and Tour will be worth waiting for.

David Coverdale, via Frontiers Music Srl‘s Facebook page

However, there has been no statement that the already announced shows supporting Foreigner on their Juke Box Heroes Tour, as well as the Canadian…

View original post 23 more words

Half A Percent Tax Poll

Outstanding job, Pati.

Terri

The Casual Galloper

A lot has been made recently about thoroughbred aftercare and how it can be paid for; of all the equine “fields” the far and away leader for most expensive is the racing industry and all associated costs are equally as large. Billions are spent on wagering, auctions, races, and ticket sales with the horses that fall through the cracks often not seeing a dime of their efforts when it comes to retiring.

My proposal is a “Half a Percent” tax on ALL activities pertaining to racing: purchases/sales at auctions, tickets for big racing days or weekends, off of any wagering winnings over $1,000, and on stallion profits passed thirty mares covered.

This “half a percent” tax would create a pool of money intended only for horses that need to be rehomed outside of racing as OTTBs either for sport/pleasure riding or as pasture pals. A governing board would be established…

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The First Round of the 2018 NFL Draft: A Brief Recap

by  Terri Bey

April 26, 2018 was a wild night for the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, held for the first time at the AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas, home of the Dallas Cowboys.  There was a surprise #1 overall pick by a team, whose behavior is not a surprise. I will give you a hint: LeBron James plays for the NBA team in the same city where this team is located. There were trades up and down the draft boards. There was drama in the “green room,” or waiting area, as it was called. There was intrigue as to whether a certain team would draft the heir apparent to their legendary, but aging quarterback in this first round. A certain four letter network certainly hoped that was the case.

Well, in this blog, I am going to give a brief recap of what happened, and my personal reaction. I am not going to go through every team’s pick, but I am going to just give a general opinion of what I thought about what occurred last night.  I hope my readers enjoy this blog, and feedback is welcome.

I happened to be watching Colin Cowherd’s new show, and he happened to announce that according to “league insiders” and according to “Vegas odds-makers,” Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, the 2018 Heisman winner was going to be made the #1 pick in the draft by the Cleveland Browns.  I couldn’t believe it. Mayfield, if you remember, is known for being caught on camera grabbing his privates. I think the young man is a talented quarterback, but his character could use some work.  In fact, he was the #1 pick, and Mayfield tipped the pick via his Instagram account. This is why the Browns are almost always the top pick or near the top pick of the draft every year. Their organization is horrendous.  I would have picked RB Saquon Barkley at #1 and then at #4, taken Mayfield. Mayfield would have been there.  I don’t see Mayfield as a #1 overall talent.

As for the team that DID take Saquon Barkley, the New York Giants, with an aging quarterback in Eli Manning, I think new GM Dave Gettleman made a good pick, if he thinks that Manning will hold up. Eli Manning does not have a bad injury history like the recently retired Tony Romo did, so I am not that concerned that the Giants didn’t get Manning’s replacement right away, like some pundits thought.  As long as the Giants do something about that offensive line, I think they did well in the first round.

The defending AFC Champion New England Patriots went to the “dogs” in this first round, Georgia Bulldogs that is.  Pundits had to have been salivating as to what the most boring NFL team in the entire league was going to do with their 23rd pick, via Brandin Cooks trade from the Los Angeles Rams, and their 31st pick. I am quite serious, when I call them “boring.”  Coach Bill Belichick in his press conferences is a total curmudgeon.  Belichick gives the same, militaristic-like answers in press conferences.  The team, including Brady, give the same militaristic-like answers in press conferences, as well Why ESPN, and other mainstream news media finds this team SO fascinating, I don’t know.

Anyway, after all the time wondering what Coach Bill Belichick, and at times, telling Belichick who he must take, analysts were stunned that Belichick actually drafted for NEED. Besides a successor for Tom Brady, the Patriots needed a left tackle, as now former  Patriots LT Nate Solder signed with the New York Giants over the off-season. Former Patriots RB Dion Lewis signed with the Tennessee Titans, so the Patriots had to draft Lewis’ replacement. Belichick and the Patriots took Tackle Isaiah Wynn with the 23rd, and RB Sony Michel, both from the University of Georgia. Pundits were stunned that Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was not taken by the Patriots as Tom Brady’s successor.  After all, the Patriots were supposedly interested in him.  That is what the sports media reported.  Perhaps Belichick wanted to trick another team into signing Jackson.

The highlight of the night, though, was when the Pittsburgh Steelers announced their pick at #28, Steeler LB Ryan Shazier, who was temporarily paralyzed during the 2017 Season in a home game against the Bengals, walked with help from his fiancée to the podium to announce the pick of Safety Terrell Edmunds. There was not a dry eye in the place. I could not stop crying.  The injury was tough to watch, but for Shazier to be able to walk, even with help, out onto that stage was an amazing miracle. No matter what team you support, I hope you will keep Ryan Shazier in your thoughts and prayers for a full recovery.

The Buffalo Bills did a ton of trades to move up in the draft. They got QB Josh Allen and LB Tremaine Edmunds. The Saints moved up to get DE Marcus Davenport. The Baltimore Ravens moved down twice, and got a Tight End named Hayden Hurst, and then moved back into the first round via a trade with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, and drafted QB Lamar Jackson.  I don’t know if Jackson was just happy to finally be out of the “green room” or what, but he said, “I’m going to bring a Super Bowl back to Baltimore.”  I like his confidence.  The New York Jets drafted QB Sam Darnold at #3.

Here are some final observations. I noticed that at least the Bills and Jets drafted what they hope will be their quarterbacks of the future, as New England’s Tom Brady won’t be able to play forever. I was surprised that the Miami Dolphins went defense, as I am not a huge believer in Ryan Tannehil. The Indianapolis Colts finally realized they have to worry about protecting QB Andrew Luck, so they drafted an offensive linemen. I was a little surprised that New Orleans didn’t look at a quarterback in the first round, as Drew Brees won’t be around forever as well as Tom Brady or Eli Manning.

Well, that is it.  I wish all these young men, who got drafted yesterday well, and I wish good luck to those hoping to be drafted during the next few days.  Thanks for reading.

Feedback:

Email:  Alydace@yahoo.com

Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/GioPontiFan

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/missedgehead

 

Off the List (Ire): Expensive Dreams

The Casual Galloper

Whenever you buy into a Thoroughbred, you always take the risk that your money will not be purchasing what you thought it would in terms of talent. However, no matter if you spent $2,000 or a million on your steed, the hope lives that you will be getting a champion.

Many things factor into a Thoroughbred’s price: pedigree, conformation, age, and breeding potential. Buyers take all of that into consideration when visiting the sales and looking at the horses on offer. Off the List (Ire) must have checked many of those boxes when Glen Hill farm went to $800,000 to secure her at the Keeneland November sale and seeing her in person at the track validated that price for me.

Beyond her great physical appearance, her pedigree speaks of a mare with a great future as a broodmare, even if her racing career doesn’t resemble the quality of her breeding.

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Girls & Guys in Gold: Stonestreet’s Success with, well…everyone

Great blog by my friend Pati.

The Casual Galloper

Some of the most celebrated thoroughbreds (and biggest fan favorites) in recent years have all raced under the Stonestreet colors; though many of the fans seem to want to gravitate to the fillies and mares, Ms. Banke has experienced success with both sexes that has become a standard expectation whenever you see their name attached to a runner.

You don’t need to search too hard to find their most recent (or most successful) standard bearers, as their favorite twitter hashtag “GirlsInGold” will pull up names like Teen Pauline, Dreaming of Julia, My Miss Aurelia, Lady Aurelia, Rachel’s Valentina, and the Hall of Famer, Rachel Alexandra. It’s not an exhaustive list, but it grows every year as the farm continues to prove that they seem to have captured racing’s favorite phrase in a bottle and harnessed its secrets: “Breed the best to the best and hope for the best”.

This success…

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