by
Terri Bey
Get your vocal cords ready to sing “My Old Kentucky Home,” as Kentucky Derby 144 will be taking place this Saturday, May 5, 2018. This 1 1/4 mile race is known as the “greatest two minutes in sports,” or “the Run for the Roses,” as the winning horse gets a garland of roses draped over his or her withers. The Kentucky Derby, run since 1875, is for 3YO Thoroughbreds of either gender. This race is the first leg in racing’s Triple Crown. Two weeks from Saturday will be the 1 3/16 mile Preakness at Pimilco Racetrack, and three weeks after that race is the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park.
Many great horses have won the Kentucky Derby, such as 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat, Northern Dancer in 1964, and Alysheba in 1987. With 3YOs going 1 1/4 miles for the first time, the Derby winner has to have some racing luck, and the favorite has not always won, giving rise to longshot winners, such as 2009’s winner Mine That Bird. Three fillies have won this American classic, and they are Regret in 1915, Genuine Risk in 1980, and Winning Colors in 1988.
In this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby, there is an amazing field of Kentucky Derby entrants. I would say that this is the best field I have seen since the 2015 Kentucky Derby field, which featured American Pharoah. There are so many storylines in this race. Can any of the 4-horse “Todd Squad” give trainer Todd Pletcher a second consecutive Derby win? The Pletcher-trained Always Dreaming won last year’s Derby. Can the “Apollo Curse” be broken by either the Bob Baffert trained Justify or Pletcher trained Magnum Moon? No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without running as a 2YO. Can the 2YO Eclipse Champion Good Magic win the roses? So many storylines to sift through.
In this blog, I am going to lay out the field, and then give my opinion by putting horses into categories based upon the chances I give them. I will give my longshot specials, and then I will give my readers the horse I think will win Kentucky Derby 144. I hope you enjoy this blog. Thank you for reading.
ANALYSIS of the KENTUCKY DERBY
- Event: Kentucky Derby
- Track: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
- Post Time: 6:50PM, EST.
- Network: NBC
Here is your field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby with jockeys, trainers and morning line odds.
Image Credit: XBTV.com Used with Permission.
TOSSES:
These are the horses that I just don’t think have a shot of hitting the board, never mind winning the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby.
Firenze Fire: He’s a deep closer. He’s in the dreaded one hole. The whole field will have to melt down for him to have a shot. Pass
Free Drop Billy: Another horse I am not all that impressed with. He did finish second to Audible in the Holy Bull, but Audible just blasted away from him. No way.
Promises Fulfilled: This speedster will just go to the front, and we will see how far his speed will carry him. Nope.
Bravazo: Yes, I know D. Wayne Lukas trains him, and he is owned by Calumet Farm, but I haven’t been impressed with his performances as of yet. Toss.
Instilled Regard: This is another horse that I would not recommend you put money on. Toss.
Combatant: He was in the money in the Rebel Stakes, and then had a wide trip, and wound up out of the money in a blanket finish several lengths behind Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon. He’s 50-1 for a reason. Toss.
Noble Indy: He won the Louisiana Derby, but he’s in post position 19, I just don’t think he will repeat his Louisiana Derby performance. He’s the only one I am tossing of the “Todd Squad.” He’s fast, but I don’t think he will get much done. Toss.
Flameaway: He finished second to Good Magic in the Bluegrass Stakes. Flameaway is a nice son of the late Scat Daddy, but I don’t think he’ll do anything here. Toss.
LONGSHOTS WORTH BETTING ON:
These are the horses that I think are worthy longshots to consider putting on your ticket, especially in your exotic bets. I am expecting a fast pace, so if the pace is right, I think my readers should consider these horses to possibly hit the board. Could an upset win come from one of these horses? Maybe.
Hofburg: This horse, trained by Bill Mott, of Cigar Fame, is a bit of a “wise guy” horse, but he has been training very well at Churchill Downs. Hofburg was a good second to Audible in the Florida Derby. I like this horse’s breeding, by Tapit, out of a Touch Gold mare. Touch Gold won the 1997 Belmont, so Hofburg definitely has distance breeding. Bill Mott doesn’t bring a horse to the Derby often, so I would pay attention here.
Lone Sailor: Owned by the late Tom Benson, Owner of the New Orleans Saints, Lone Sailor has also been working well of late. Lone Sailor finished a great second to Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby. If the pace is hot enough, which I suspect it will be, Lone Sailor should be expecting to make a late run. He’s looked great at the track. I like him a little better than Hofburg.
My Boy Jack: My Boy Jack made an amazing run in the Lexington Stakes to get enough points to make the Kentucky Derby with that win. Can he do it again in the Kentucky Derby? I like him, but I would like his chances better, if the track were going to be muddy, which may be the case, as per the National Weather Service, there is a 40% chance of showers for Louisville on Saturday. If the track does happen to be an off track, definitely consider My Boy Jack.
Enticed: This son of Medaglia D’Oro won the Gotham Stakes and was second in the Wood Memorial to Vino Russo. He should be stalking the pace. My concern with him is his action. What I am referring to is his stride looks a bit awkward to me at times. However, he is training well, and I think he is worth considering.
Solomini: This horse was nearly a toss for me, because he has been so inconsistent. It takes a lot for me to doubt a horse trained by Bob Baffert. He raced fairly well in California against the now sidelined McKinzie. However, in both the Rebel and in the Arkansas Derby, Solomini was a total mess. I don’t know if his rider gave him a bad ride, or what the deal was. If Solomini gets it together, he could surprise.
HEADING TO THE WINNER’S CIRCLE:
These are the horses, who are more probable than not going to be the ones most likely to win Kentucky Derby 144.
Audible: He was an impressive winner of the Holy Bull and Florida Derby. I love this horse. Of all of the horses that Todd Pletcher has in this race, Audible is my favorite. The Florida Derby has produced 24 Derby winners, including last year’s Derby winner Always Derby. Sadly, it didn’t work for my beloved Alydar 40 years ago, but I digress. He’s been looking good in training. I really love this horse.
Vino Russo: This horse is very well bred. He is by Curlin, out of a Street Cry mare. Vino Russo survived an inquiry to win the Wood Memorial. I am expecting to see him come off the pace. I am not as crazy about him as some other handicappers are, but he is a horse to definitely put on your ticket.
Magnum Moon: Magnum Moon is undefeated as a 3YO this year. He has won the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby with authority. Magnum Moon does run a bit greenish, and is in post position 16. I don’t think he is as fast as some of these contenders, but he comes in undefeated. He does deserve to be considered a strong possible winner. He is lightly raced, as he did not race as a 2YO, and is trying to break the “Apollo Curse.”
Good Magic: He comes into the race with a decent win in the Bluegrass Stakes. The Bluegrass Stakes has produced 23 winners of the Kentucky Derby, but no Bluegrass Stakes winner has gone onto win the Roses since Strike the Gold in 1991, so Good Magic is up against a bit of history, here. Good Magic has been looking and training very well at Churchill Downs. Trainer Chad Brown appears to be very pleased with him. I definitely would put Good Magic on a ticket.
Justify: Besides Solomini, Bob Baffert trains the favorite, Justify, who like Magnum Moon, is also trying to break the “Apollo Curse.” Justify has raced only 3 times, but has been brilliant in all three starts, most notably, the Santa Anita Stakes, where he defeated Bolt D’Oro. He has been looking great. at Churchill Downs, since arrival. Justify looks great on the Churchill Downs track. He has been training great at Santa Anita. I have been a fan of Justify since day one. Justify is one of, if not THE horse to beat in this field.
Bolt D’Oro: This son of Medaglia D’Oro was the prohibitive favorite to be crowned champion 2YO in 2017, until he finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to eventual champion Good Magic. Bolt D’Oro was awarded first place via DQ over McKinzie in the San Felipe in a rather controversial decision by the stewards in 2018. Bolt D’Oro finished second behind Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. This is another horse, who I think is sitting on a big race, and another horse I absolutely love.
Mendelssohn: This son of Scat Daddy became my Kentucky Derby horse when he won the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf with authority. Yes, you read that right. He won a TURF race. Mendelssohn is named for one of the greatest composers ever, Felix Mendelssohn. Mendelssohn, the horse, is sired by Scat Daddy, and is out of Leslie’s Lady, dam of multiple time champion mare Beholder and Into Mischief, sire of Audible. Mendelssohn stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a killer performance in the UAE Derby by 18 lengths. The Scat Daddy colt is trained by Aidan O’Brien, and is aiming to be the first European to win the American classic.
MY KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS:
LONGSHOT PICK: Lone Sailor.
KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER: I have been going back and forth between Bolt D’Oro, Justify, and Mendelssohn. I realize that Mendelssohn has to travel, and there is the “bounce” factor, like there was with Bellamy Road. However, Mendelssohn does not appear to have any issues with traveling, and he is way more talented than Bellamy Road. Justify’s lack of experience does concern me. Does Bolt D’Oro’s trainer Mick Ruis have the horse ready? The only horse from the “Todd Squad” I really am into is Audible.
Well, after much consideration, my pick for the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby is MENDELSSOHN.
Good luck to all, and if you bet, bet with your head, not over it.
Feedback is welcome.
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