by Terri Bey
I want to get started by wishing everyone a Happy and Safe New Year. I hope you have a great time celebrating the incoming new year, but if you plan to drink, please have a plan to get home safely. Do not drink and drive. That is why there are options like Lyft, Uber, Taxis, and designated drivers. Be safe.
Now, that I got that out of the way, let’s get to the matter at hand, my pick for thoroughbred racing’s Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year. The nominees are due Tuesday, January 2nd for the Eclipse Awards. The Eclipse Awards, racing’s equivalent of the Oscars, will be announced on January 24, 2019 at Gulfstream Park in Hallendale, FL. It is a black tie affair, where awards for various categories are given out for excellence in thoroughbred racing.
The most heated debate this year concerns which horse should be voted Horse of the Year. There are three nominees in just about every category, but in this particular category, this is a two horse race, pardon the pun, between 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, and 2018 Breeders Cup winner Accelerate, a winner of 6 out of 7 stakes/handicap races in 2018. From my observation of the debate both in articles and on social media, one would think it would be the end of the world if one horse won over the other. This is how intense it is.
Well, in this blog, I am going to throw my hat into the ring, and give my opinion on which of these two very nice horses should be the 2018 Horse of the Year. I hope my readers will enjoy this blog. Feedback is most welcome.
I am going to do a bit of a comparison between the two horses. Yes, Justify was retired after his Triple Crown triumph, per trainer Bob Baffert due to a “filling in his ankle,” and wasn’t “able to get him ready for the Breeders’ Cup.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/25/sports/horse-racing/justify-triple-crown-retired.html ) Obviously, due to the retirement, he wasn’t able to get a fall campaign, so he could compete against the older horses, so I have to judge him against Accelerate with the record Justify has.
Justify is undefeated in 2018, having only run six times. He won a Maiden Special Weight in February of 2018, an Allowance race in March, the Grade One Santa Anita Derby, and the Triple Crown, which are all Grade 1 races. He has 4 Grade 1 races. In 2018, Accelerate has won 5 Grade 1 races, the Breeders Cup Classic this past November, the Awesome Again Stakes in September, the Pacific Classic in August, the Gold Cup in Santa Anita back in May, and the Santa Anita Handicap back in March. Accelerate also won a Grade 2 race, the San Pasqual Stakes in February and finished second in another, the Oaklawn Handicap in April, his sole defeat in 2018.
Now, if one is a “stats person,” and I am seeing this argument as well, Accelerate is the horse that one would pick for Horse of the Year. After all, he has run more races than Justify. Accelerate faced older horses, and Justify didn’t. Accelerate soundly beat many of the 3YO horses that Justify beat. Accelerate won more Grade 1 races than Justify.
The Justify argument goes like this: He won the Triple Crown, period. Justify ran in all different states under all different conditions, and such. It wasn’t his fault he got hurt.
Well, if I had a vote in the Eclipse Award voting, I would have voted for JUSTIFY as Horse of the Year. My reason is this. Yes, I hear the argument that Accelerate ran all year. Yes, I get that Justify was hurt and all that. To me, the Triple Crown still matters. It is such a RARE ACHIEVEMENT in not only horse racing, but in sports. Yes, I know that American Pharoah won it three years ago, but we had 2 Triple Crown winners in 40 years. It is still that rare. If you look back at the history of the event, the Triple Crown has come in bunches 1973, 1977, and 1978 were all Triple Crown years. Had Spectacular Bid not stepped on that nail or his jockey Ronnie Franklin not gone after that longshot early in the Belmont, 1979 would also have been a Triple Crown year.
Let’s look at the two horses. Accelerate only ran one more race than Justify. To me, for a Triple Crown winner to lose Horse of the Year, the horse to steal the title from that horse BETTER have done something incredible to have warranted him/her being the Horse of the Year over the Triple Crown winner. In fact, in 1978, Seattle Slew nearly did steal the Horse of the Year title from Affirmed, as Seattle Slew made a furious fall campaign. The margin of victory from the Turf Writers was approximately 7 votes. (https://www.nytimes.com/1978/12/13/archives/affirmed-by-a-nose-as-best-horse-of-78-affirmed-by-a-nose-as-best.html ) Did Accelerate run some nice races? Yes. Did he win the Breeders’ Cup in Kentucky, which is outside of his home in California? Yes. However, let’s look at Justify. He defeated a full field of 20 Horses in the slop at Churchill Downs, after a pretty decent, but not exactly overpowering win in the Santa Anita Derby a few weeks prior. However, he had some foot issue after the Derby, but overcame that and survived a speed dual from Good Magic, the slop and an oncoming Bravazo to win the Preakness. Justify draws the rail in the Belmont, and is gunned to the front. Gronkowksi makes a run, but no touchdown for him as Justify strong-arms him and wins the Belmont and the Triple Crown.
While Accelerate has excellent credentials and surely would be my pick for Outstanding Older Horse, and should get that award easily, I just don’t think he has done enough to steal Horse of the Year from Justify.
Justify is my pick as Horse of the Year.
Photos of Accelerate and Justify are by Terri Bey . Please ask permission.
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